Finance

War-game a budget cut before you announce it

War-game a budget cut before finance, operators, and customers hear the announcement as rumor.

A cut is not only a spreadsheet. It changes what you can ship, who stays, what support quality drops, and which commitments you can no longer keep. Shipping a cut without a seating chart review usually means you learn the hard objections in the first week of attrition and missed SLAs, not in a private pass.

Freeze the scenario

State the cut amount, the lines affected, the effective date, what is protected, and the success metric you will honor. Name the teams and customer segments that feel it first. If the memo mixes three unrelated savings programs, split them. A war game needs one move under fire at a time.

Write the decision you will make if the war game finds nothing new. Also write the reverse criteria: the churn spike, SLA miss, or hiring freeze failure that would restore spend within a stated window.

Seats that matter

  • Finance. Cash timing, runway math, and what the forecast hides if revenue softens after the cut.
  • Operator. Capacity, dependencies, and the first ninety days of thinner coverage.
  • Customer. Which promises break in delivery, support, or roadmap.
  • People and morale. Retention risk, rumor surface, and the message that would make key people leave.
  • Skeptic. The claim that looks strongest and is least sourced.

Attach the same source pack to every seat: current burn, protected bets, customer commitments, and the exception policy you actually intend to use. Secret data for one seat creates fake agreement.

Loop the review

Feed Pingpong the cut memo, the burn exhibits, and the seating briefs. First pass steelmans the cut. Later passes attack from finance, operator, customer, and morale seats. Final pass turns surviving objections into phased cuts, mitigations, or a changed recommendation. Agreement across passes is not proof. Keep the objections that still have evidence gaps.

If quiet one-off restorations are the real risk, force the review to invent the exception policy before announce. A cut that only works with silent add-backs is not a cut. It is a shadow budget with worse reporting. Write the exception rules, the approval owner, and the monthly cap into the package, then ask the finance and operator seats to attack those rules.

Pair with before you cut burn, war-game your strategy, war-game a reorg, CEO decision review, and the war-game decisions hub. See AI decision review and how it works.