War-game a cash runway brief by testing whether its cash definition, burn math, and decision triggers still hold when collections slip and commitments already signed keep drawing cash.
Runway slides fail when cash means different things across packs, when burn ignores known one-time items, and when the brief has no written action at stated thresholds. The session should freeze one definition of cash, one burn construction, and the decisions that fire at each month of runway remaining.
Lock the brief inputs
Write the cash definition, included instruments, restricted balances, committed outflows, expected collections, hire and vendor timing, and the exact burn formula. Attach bank reconciliations, open purchase commitments, and the last three actual-versus-plan variance notes. If debt covenants or investor reporting rules constrain the story, put those constraints in the same packet.
Name the audience and the decision the brief is meant to support: hire pace, expense policy, fundraising timing, or a hold. Without that decision, the brief becomes decorative.
Include the calendar of known cash events for the next two quarters: tax payments, annual vendor renewals, bonus cycles, and debt service. A runway month count that ignores those dates will look calm until the week they land.
Seat pressure on the math
- FP&A lead
- Defends driver quality and whether the burn construction matches prior packs.
- Treasury lead
- Challenges liquidity timing, restricted cash, and banking operational risk.
- Controller
- Tests whether accruals and commitments are visible in the same week the brief claims.
- Operator
- Shows which planned spends are already half-committed in practice.
- Skeptic
- Finds the strongest runway claim with the weakest collection assumption.
Force threshold decisions
In Pingpong, run cases where collections slip by one cycle, a vendor invoice accelerates, a hire class starts early, and a "non-recurring" cost repeats. For each case, start from the brief's threshold language. Ask who can pause spend and which evidence is required. Any threshold without an owner becomes a planning gap.
Replay last quarter's brief under today's commitments. If the historical brief would have looked healthy while cash later tightened for a known reason, revise the construction before the next board pack.
Pair with the FP&A lead seat, the treasury lead seat, and an expense policy change stress test. Browse the war-game decisions hub for related capital reviews.
Clear the brief only after two independent readers can recompute runway from the same exhibits and reach the same month count within the documented tolerance.